HUGE REDUCTIONS IN MEAT-EATING 'ESSENTIAL' TO AVOID CLIMATE BREAKDOWN
Huge reductions in meat-eating are essential to avoid dangerous climate change, according to one of the most comprehensive analyses of the food system's impact on the environment. In Western countries, the study states that beef consumption needs to fall by 90 % and be replaced by five times more beans and peas. The research also finds that enormous changes to farming are needed to avoid destroying the planet's ability to feed the 10 billion people expected to be on the planet in a few decades.
Food production already causes great damage to the environment, via greenhouse gases from livestock, deforestation and water shortages from farming, and vast dead zones in oceans from agricultural pollution. But without action, its impact will get far worse as the world population rises by 2.3 billion people by 2050. At the same time, global income is increasing, enabling more people to eat meat-rich Western-style diets. "It is pretty shocking," said Marco Springmann at the University of Oxford, who led the research team. "We are really risking the sustainability of the whole system. If we are interested in people being able to farm and eat, then we better not do that."
The new study follows the publication of a UN report in which the world's leading scientists warned there are just 12 years in which to keep global warming under 1.5 °C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods and extreme heat. The report said consuming less meat and dairy products (like eggs and cheese) was important. Nevertheless, current trends are in the opposite direction.
The new research, published in the journal Nature, is the most thorough to date and combined data from many countries to evaluate the impact of food production on the global environment. It then looked at what could be done to stop the looming food crisis. "There is no magic bullet," said Springmann. "But dietary and technological change [on farms] are the two essential things, and hopefully they can be complemented by a reduction in food loss and waste." About a third of food produced today never reaches the table.
The researchers recommended a global shift to a "flexitarian" diet in order to keep climate change under 2 °C. This flexitarian diet means drastic changes for many people: the average European or American would need to eat 75 % less beef, 90 % less pork and half the number of eggs, while tripling consumption of legumes such as beans, peas, and lentils and quadrupling that of nuts and seeds. This would cut emissions from livestock by 50 %, and better management of manure would enable further cuts. In contrast to what needs to occur in the U.S. and Europe, the millions of people in poor nations who are undernourished need to eat a little more meat and dairy.
Reducing meat consumption might be achieved by a mix of education, taxes, subsidies for plant-based foods and changes to school and workplace menus, the scientists said. To prevent deforestation, water shortages and pollution from overuse of fertiliser, they recommend profound changes in farming practices.
Ultimately, we live on a finite planet, with finite resources. It is a myth to imagine that there is a technological solution allowing us to produce as much food as we might ever want, allowing us to overeat and throw food away. The effects of the current food system on the environment will not allow future generations to live on a stable, ecologically rich planet.